Publications

Historically, Asia has benefitted from China’s strong growth and the Fed’s loose policy. However, 2024 was shaped by familiar forces from 2023: China’s sluggish recovery, a strong US dollar, and high global interest rates.
 

China’s recovery remained below historical norms, supported only by exports and manufacturing capex. Softer demand post-lockdown persisted due to ongoing property and manufacturing sector pressures, dampening wage growth and consumer confidence.
 

Global trade and manufacturing, weakened since 2022, showed little sign of a rebound. Meanwhile, higher US rates and a stronger dollar tightened financial conditions, weighing particularly on economies with large twin deficits like Indonesia. India performed well in early 2024, but unexpectedly contested elections slowed its momentum.